Karnataka Crisis: 4 Things that Could Happen

The Karnataka crisis, which is a political debacle, is currently on-going. Rebel MLAs of the Congress and the JD(S) had moved the Supreme Court. They alleged that the assembly speaker had abandoned his constitutional duties. He was deliberately taking time in accepting their resignation. This allegation was made after speaker KR Ramesh Kumar said that it would take at least six days to take any action regarding the resignation of the thirteen rebel MLAs. This had given some glimmer of hope to the Congress-JD(S) government which had been put in a difficult situation.

The halfway point for the 224 member House is 113.  Apart from the 13 MLAs, suspended Congress MLA Roshan Baig has also resigned. He claims that he has not joined the rebels. If the resignations of the fourteen MLAs are approved, Congress-JD(S) tally will come down to 102. And BJPs tally would increase to 108.

The possibilities:

1. Congress-JD(S) prevails – This could only be possible if four or five of the thirteen MLAs withdraw their resignations. Conversely, the party could script a reverse poaching operation to get four or five BJP MLAs to resign, averting the Karnataka crisis.
2. BJP reclaims power – If the speaker does accept the resignation of the rebels, the BJP with its 108 MLAs and the majority will be in a position to form the government. The strength of the coalition will be dramatically reduced to 102. With the thirteen vacancies, the halfway point will come down to 106. Then the governor could invite the BJP to form the government.
3. Supreme Court Intervention – 10 rebel Karnataka MLAs of the Congress and JD(S) have moved the Supreme Court. SC could ask the speaker to make his decision faster. It could also ask for a floor test.
4. Re-Election- If the resignations are accepted and the two independent MLAs do not support BJP, their tally will remain at 105. The governor may recommend President’s rule. Kumaraswamy may be asked to hold office as caretaker Chief Minister until elections are held.

The Karnataka Crisis will surely test the mettle of parties on both sides. What do you think will happen in the near future?

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